For the first time in more than a decade, there’s a glimmer of hope in the battle against obesity in the United States. According to a recent study published in the JAMA Health Forum, obesity rates in the U.S. have shown a slight but meaningful decline. After years of relentless increases, the percentage of American adults considered obese dropped from 46% in 2022 to 45.6% in 2023 — a small but significant dip that offers a new sense of optimism about the country’s ongoing struggle with obesity.
The study’s findings
For ABC News, Niki Iranpour, M.D., who is an internal medicine resident at New York-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center and a member of the ABC News Medical Unit, took a look at the study’s findings and implications.
The study, which tracked the body mass index (BMI) of 16.7 million U.S. adults over a 10-year period, revealed an important milestone. After a decade of rising obesity rates, the average BMI, which reached 30.24 in 2022, plateaued and then slightly decreased to 30.21 in 2023. For many public health experts, this marks the first real sign that the alarming trend of rising obesity may be reversing.
John Brownstein, the study’s co-author, and a professor of pediatrics at Harvard Medical School, expressed cautious optimism about the findings. He said:
What we’re seeing for the first time is that curve is bending and shows a sign of hope for something that was really a threat to American public health for so many years.
While the drop is small, it’s still a hopeful shift in a battle that has been fought for decades. Since the early 2000s, the obesity rate in the U.S. has steadily climbed, contributing to a host of health issues including diabetes, heart disease, and certain cancers. A decline, even a modest one, suggests that something — perhaps multiple factors — is finally starting to make a difference.
The role of semaglutide and GLP-1 medications
While they’re still being evaluated for safety, especially for children, one factor that may be contributing to this positive change is the increasing use of weight loss medications, particularly semaglutide. Semaglutide, the active ingredient in the medications Ozempic and Wegovy, belongs to a class of drugs known as GLP-1 receptor agonists. Originally developed to treat type 2 diabetes, these drugs have been shown to significantly aid in weight loss, making them a game-changer for people struggling with obesity.
Between 2019 and 2023, the use of GLP-1 medications for weight loss increased by a staggering 700%, according to one study published in Annals of Internal Medicine. These drugs work by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and appetite, leading to reduced hunger and weight loss. Given their growing popularity and effectiveness, many experts believe that the widespread use of semaglutide may be helping to turn the tide on the obesity epidemic.
Brownstein and his team pointed out that regions in the U.S. where these medications have been dispensed most — particularly in the South — saw some of the most significant declines in obesity. The South also happens to be a region where obesity rates have historically been high, and the use of weight loss medications is rapidly growing.
Other factors at play
While semaglutide and other GLP-1 medications likely play a key role in the decline, experts caution that there are likely other contributing factors as well. For one, the pandemic had a profound impact on lifestyle habits, and as people returned to more normal routines after the height of COVID-19, some may have become more active and healthier.
Benjamin Rader, an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School and a co-author of the study, suggested that the emergence from pandemic isolation could be influencing this trend. He said:
People are potentially starting to be more active again, stopping the sedentary habits they picked up during COVID… This shift toward more physical activity, combined with a greater awareness of the risks of obesity, may be encouraging healthier choices.
Additionally, the South’s high obesity rate and increased use of weight loss medications were also accompanied by a disproportionately high number of COVID-19 deaths among people with obesity. This tragic impact could have prompted more individuals to seek medical intervention, including weight loss treatments, as a way to manage their health.
A long road ahead
While the findings of this study are encouraging, experts warn against jumping to conclusions. Anne Peters, M.D., a professor at the Keck School of Medicine, emphasized that it’s still too early to determine whether this slight decline in obesity rates will persist in the long term. She told ABC News:
We need to look at this as a positive indicator in a specific database… That may mean that people are doing better and that including therapies [is] helpful, but we need to see how that plays out over time.
Will the trend continue?
As we move into 2025 and beyond, all eyes will be on the U.S. obesity rates to see if this downward trend continues. The increased availability of medications like semaglutide, combined with a renewed focus on physical activity and healthier lifestyles post-pandemic, offers a glimmer of hope that the U.S. may finally be on the road to reversing its obesity epidemic.
For now, the slight decline in obesity rates is a reason to celebrate — but also a reminder that the journey toward healthier habits and improved public health is a long one. The real question is whether this momentary dip will continue into the future or whether the country will face new challenges ahead in the fight against obesity.
Only time will tell.
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Source: “US obesity rates drop for 1st time in a decade, with possible help from weight loss medications,” ABC News, 12/13/24
Source: “Changes in Adult Obesity Trends in the US,” JAMA Network, 12/13/24
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