Children don’t all grow the same way. A recent study from the NIH-funded Environmental Influences on Child Health Outcomes (ECHO) Program, reported in JAMA Network Open, sheds light on how early weight trends can signal future health concerns. Researchers tracked nearly 9,500 children’s body mass index (BMI) from infancy through age 9 and identified two distinct growth patterns.
Most kids (about 89%) followed a typical growth curve where BMI naturally dropped between ages 1 and 6, then gradually increased again. However, about 11% showed a different trend — their BMI remained stable from ages 1 to 3.5, then climbed sharply through age 9. Children in this group were significantly more likely to have obesity by age 9, with BMI measurements above the 99th percentile.
The study also found that certain early-life factors may raise the risk of obesity later on. These include being born with a high birthweight, maternal smoking during pregnancy, having a mother with a high BMI before pregnancy, and excessive weight gain during pregnancy.
Childhood obesity, defined as a BMI at or above the 95th percentile for a child’s age and sex, often results from excess body fat and can lead to serious health problems like heart disease and type 2 diabetes later in life. Without intervention, kids who follow these higher-risk growth patterns may continue to struggle with weight into adolescence and adulthood.
To better understand these trends, researchers used data from medical records, parent-reported measurements, and both in-person and at-home evaluations. Their goal was to track how BMI changed over time and uncover any links to early childhood experiences.
Lead researcher Chang Liu, an assistant professor of psychology at Washington State University, said in a news release:
The fact that we can identify unusual BMI patterns as early as age 3.5 shows how critical early childhood is for preventing obesity… Our findings suggest there are important opportunities to reduce childhood obesity, such as helping pregnant women quit smoking and manage healthy weight gain, as well as closely monitoring children who show early signs of rapid weight gain.
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Source: “Early childhood weight patterns linked to future obesity risk,” News Medical, 5/22/25
Source: “Preschool BMI Can Predict Childhood Obesity Risk,” HealthDay News, 5/28/25
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