Coronavirus Chronicles — Variants Cause Unwholesome Changes

The previous post described two of the worrisome COVID variants, and one more will be mentioned here — the formidable Alpha, or the U.K. variant, otherwise known as B.1.1.7, which is rampant in Britain and has spread to 50 other countries. It mutates like crazy, and what its progeny seem to have in common is the ability to improve their spike protein, which helps them latch on to our cells.

Alpha is at least 50% (and maybe as much as 70%) more transmissible than before. The victims are more than twice as likely to be hospitalized. Journalist Zeynep Tufekci wrote of it,

Compared with previous surges, case-for-unvaccinated-case, this surge has the potential to cause more illness and more deaths, infecting fewer but doing more damage among them. We can also expect to see more younger, unvaccinated people falling sick and dying.

Tufekci also mentions the phrase “exponential growth,” which provides another opportunity to recommend a two-minute animated explainer that will be difficult to unsee. Trevor Bedford, a scientist with a ton of credentials, amassed over 300,000 Twitter followers through relating such facts as,

[I]t’s clear that non-variant viruses have been declining throughout the spring, while variant viruses have been responsible for multiple state-level-epidemics.

The latest crisis is messing with the Olympics and the World Economic Forum and the plans and hopes of millions of individual humans. Remember how some countries initially got a handle on the virus? They have lost their grip, thanks to the variants:

Cases are soaring in Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Laos for the first time and returning in numbers that haven’t been seen in months in Singapore, Malaysia and Japan.

Taiwan’s defenses worked spectacularly for a while, until they didn’t, and in May the numbers exploded. Some experts blame complacency, while others blame the emphasis on border control while neglecting in-country preventative measures. In any case, the new variants play a role. And then there is Singapore, which…

[…] has seen a sharp jump in cases, prompting the government to order lockdown measures on Sunday for the first time in nearly a year. The reversal marks a serious blow for Singapore, which has vaccinated one-fifth of its population and imposed border controls, deploying so-called safe distancing ambassadors and making a contact tracing app mandatory.

Muddled thoughts prevail

Americans seem prone to a particularly naive and dangerous brand of wishful thinking. It’s as if we expect the virus to give us credit for loving our families and trying to sustain human relationships. But the virus does not care about anything except its own agenda. It wants us to pick it up and carry it to our parents and grandparents and children and best friends. It preempts our finest qualities, our love and loyalty and longing for in-person communication, and turns those traits into weapons that threaten our whole population.

Abhishek Rimal, the Asia Pacific emergency health coordinator at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, sums it up:

The world needs to realize no one is safe until everyone is safe.

Your responses and feedback are welcome!

Source: “The Coronavirus Is a Master of Mixing Its Genome, Worrying Scientists,” NYTimes.com, 02/08/21
Source: “The Fourth Surge Is Upon Us. This Time, It’s Different,” Archive.is, 03/30/21
Source: “Legend of the Chessboard,” YouTube.com, 01/11/11
Source: “Trevor Bedford,” Bedford.io, undated
Source: “These parts of Asia beat coronavirus early. Why they’re suddenly in lockdown,” LATimes.com. 05/18/21
Image by Marco Verch/CC BY 2.0

COVID Variants, New and Different

Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is always up to date on the latest coronavirus news. Earlier this month he wrote,

I feel that ignoring the risks in kids has been one of the biggest blunders of many Covid denialist and minimizer scientists (after ignoring airborne). (P)oliticians often act too late. Scientists are often too shy to shout from the roof tops early… What you get is inaction by politicians & slow vocalization by scientists until too late. Why did we not realize kids transmitted #SARSCoV2 last year?

He also reminds readers that people of any age — yes, even children — can serve as human incubators in which a new mutation may flourish. Other wise words come from writer Gregory Barber, who suggests framing the SARS-CoV-2 variants as “a series of epidemics within the pandemic.”

Scary for real

The reason for alarm is that the longer the virus is left alone to do as it pleases, the more it takes advantage and transforms into worse versions of itself. Many different variants are circulating, of which five are labeled “of concern” in the U.S. The most troubling ones at the moment seem to be Delta, Gamma, and Alpha. Delta is especially notable for sweeping through areas the seemed to have a pretty good handle on things.

In the most recent India resurgence, and due mainly to Delta, 730 doctors have already succumbed to the contagion. This new, improved COVID is spread faster, causes more severe illness, attacks children and teens, and is responsible for four times as many reinfections as the original virus. It does not give a fig about a single dose of Pfizer vaccine, though it does have some respect for the double shot.

In the United Kingdom, Delta (aka B.1.617.2) accounts for 90% of new cases and an exponential rise in hospitalizations. The government had contemplated full reopening, and then changed its mind and delayed that long-awaited moment for another month. In the U.S., Delta has already become the dominant strain in California and Hawaii, and the rest of the states are expected to follow suit.

Now, what about Gamma?

The so-called Brazil variant, or P.1, appears more eager than its predecessor to kill pregnant women, or at least to make their babies stillborn or premature. To pediatric patients, it is also liable to bring along its partner in crime, multisystem inflammatory syndrome, or MIS-C.

The Brazil variant travels twice as fast as good old-fashioned COVID-19, does not recognize the concept of immunity, and kills a lot of kids. Its devastating effects on the young include severe gastric disorders, hearing impairment, and blood clots that develop into gangrene. Bloomberg.com says,

Given the presence of the Gamma variant in the United States — about 7 percent of Covid-19 cases in the United States can be attributed to this variant — it’s possible that pediatric and newborn Covid-19 cases could soon become more prevalent.

(To be continued…)

Your responses and feedback are welcome!

Source: “DrEricDing,” Twitter.com, 06/07/21
Source: “Variant Hunters Race to Find New Strains Where Testing Lags,” Wired.com, 04/09/21
Source: “Covid-19 is killing infants and young children in Brazil,” ClinicalTrialsArena.com, 05/24/21
Source: “Gangrene, Hearing Loss Show Delta Variant May Be More Severe,” Bloomberg.com, 06/07/21
Image by Dennis Sylvester Hurd/Public Domain

Coronavirus Chronicles — The Feeling Is Not Mutual

Suddenly, a large number of Americans have made up their minds. They have had enough of COVID. But rather than unite for a strong push to eradicate the disease, they seem instead to have decided to not just ignore it, but actively deny its existence and furthermore, to nag and berate their fellow citizens, especially through social media.

They have decided that vaccines are poisonous or just a big scam, and that the government knows better cures and maliciously keeps them from the people. They believe that being asked to cover their noses and mouths is an unconscionable intrusion on freedom. We are in a situation as perilous as that of London when enemy bombers lurked overhead, hoping for some light to show. Decent, patriotic Brits put up their blackout curtains for the greater good, and stumbled around in the dark being hit by cars. But they saved an unimaginable number of lives. Today, Americans think that wearing a mask is too much to expect.

Dr. Fauci, whose titles are Director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and chief medical advisor to the president, is vilified for not having had all the answers immediately, and for allegedly misleading the public, either of his own volition or on orders from higher up. Any blame that is to be allotted must surely stretch farther than one individual, but simple-minded public opinion does whatever it wants. Scientists, not only Dr. Fauci in the U.S. but others in such civilized countries as Belgium, are sent death threats by far-right anti-vaxxers.

Trials and tribulations

A California study (conducted by eight authors from three institutions) organized deaths by occupation and found that the job with the highest percentage of coronavirus deaths is cook. In the third rank are agricultural workers (who handle food). The fourth are bakers. The 11th group are chefs and head cooks.

All those professions have lost a greater proportion of their members than licensed practical/vocational nurses have done. Even bartenders are way further down the list than the harvesters, cooks, and bakers who prepare the food that is served in restaurants. And yet, this is the environment to which customers clamor to return.

Trolls are talking about how metal objects cling to a vaccinated person. They report that unvaccinated people feel ill when in an enclosed room with vaccinated people. They say the COVID statistics are exaggerated, and it’s just the common cold, anyway. Masks cause carbon dioxide poisoning. My body, my choice. Some women refuse vaccination because they have heard it will make them infertile.

It’s not over ’til it’s over

In The New York Times, pediatrician Dr. Aaron E. Carroll asked, “When can we declare the pandemic over?” Dr. Carroll wrote,

Cases are stalled or rising in many areas. Virus variants are becoming more prevalent. While many people are vaccinated, many more are not.

In this country, we have never properly engaged in contact tracing. Testing the asymptomatic has not been a priority. But the information that could be gained from putting more emphasis on these tactics might provide valuable clues about how to end the whole disaster. Words are being flung around, prematurely in the opinion of some experts — phrases like re-emergence; post-pandemic; return to normalcy. A hefty segment of the population wants to believe that if we just ignore it, it will go away.

In the 60s, Phil Ochs sang, “I declare the war is over.” John and Yoko sang, “War is over if you want it.” Those were inspiring yet not exactly factual lyrics. And now we’ve got people thinking COVID is over, just because they want it to be. Everyone has simply had enough. We’re done with it, ready to move on. But the coronavirus, in all its multiplicity, is apparently not done with us.

Your responses and feedback are welcome!

Source: “Excess mortality associated with the COVID-19 pandemic among Californians 18–65 years of age, by occupational sector and occupation,” MedRxiv.org, 01/22/21
Source: “When Can We Declare the Pandemic Over?,” NYTimes.com, 04/27/21
Image by Pat Hartman/Public Domain

Coronavirus Chronicles — The Acrylic Sheet SNAFU

When the pandemic started, face masks and body bags were not the only commodities the market rushed to invest in. The smart money gravitated toward acrylic sheeting, otherwise known as plexiglass (which is not a trademarked name unless it only has one S). Sales of this useful material went through the metaphorical roof. A year’s supply flew out of the warehouses in two months.

It is, however, fortunate that the material can be recycled. Increasingly, the use of hard plastic barriers is regarded as almost useless. A cashier or bank teller, who must confront masses of people up close, probably gets some benefit from a sheet of acrylic. Everybody else, not so much.

What does WHO say?

According to the World Health Organization,

Evidence shows that #COVID19 does not pose a high risk to children & schools are not drivers of transmission. We know how to reduce risks to children, teachers & families.

Some critics wonder how much the organization actually knows about risk reduction, pointing out that these are the same folks who once assured the world that airborne transmission does not happen with SARS-CoV-2. It does, which is why erecting transparent plastic barriers in indoor spaces is pretty much an exercise in futility. No, the WHO anti-Covid guidance for school operation doesn’t mention them either. It recommends personal hygiene, mask use, physical distance, ventilation, and surface disinfection.

Teachers, by the way, exercise their online comment power to say “Rubbish!” to the claim that schools are not drivers of transmission. Colds, flu, and head lice encompass schools like tsunami waves. A fed-up teacher might compare going to work with, for instance, playing Russian roulette every day.

Scientists who do studies say the same, in more academic language. Even if schools do not at the moment represent a high risk to children, the new Covid variants could change that overnight. Even now, asymptomatic children can carry the virus home to more vulnerable family members.

Expensive lessons

Horry County, South Carolina, is the scene of a quintessential story of pandemic confusion and the misallocation of funds through ignorance. Like many other authorities, the School District thought it was doing the right thing. Thanks to CARES Act funding, it was able to have plexiglass barriers installed in classrooms. (See photos of elementary schools that look like prisons and may be firetraps.) The five million dollar project was completed just this April, and now the clear partitions and their structural supports are already being removed (cost not known).

Journalist Annette Montgomery captured a quotation from a parent of two students, Lori Ard:

That money could’ve been utilized to place air purification systems in the school and to keep the environment clean and keep the air purified for our students and now we have $5 million worth of plexiglass that’s probably just going to sit in some storage building somewhere.

Sara-Lauren Dozier, with four kids in the system, asked,

If there were teachers who weren’t to come back because of COVID concerns then why weren’t we searching for other people to come in who didn’t have those same concerns instead of putting plexiglass up and wasting money?

Which kind of misses the point, which should be safety; not teachers’ or parents’ willingness to tolerate unsafe conditions. Mechanical engineer Marwa Zaatari remarked via Twitter,

If instead $5M was spent on buying HEPA air cleaners, they could have bought 14,300 air cleaners to be installed in ~7,200 classrooms to get air exchange rate (ACH) > 4.

For a comprehensive look at why plexiglass barriers may harm more than help, see this University of Washington document.

Your responses and feedback are welcome!

Source: “World Health Organization,” Twitter.com, 06/10/21
Source: “‘It was a waste of $5M:’ Parents react to plexiglass barriers coming down in HC,” WPDE.com, 06/08/21
Source: “@marwa_zaatari,” Twitter.com, 06/08/21
Image by Yellowstone National Park/Public Domain